BIG MARLEY’S UFC 227 BETTING PREVIEW

There is a lot of money to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. DK also has a lot of Qualifier contests available this week, in which the last event will pay $50k to 1st for those who did qualify to play in it. I will be pursuing those as well because we have never had a $50k 1st place prize and I want it. I do think we have a fun card this Saturday and that I am ready to enter this 3-week break with a winning night in UFC 227. Here are a couple plays I like this weekend together with my fade of the week.
Money Game play of this week — Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)
Demetrious Johnson is the safest play in all DFS MMA and he has the maximum ceiling as well. DJ is the P4P best fight in the world (not counting Jon Jones) and he’s already beat Cejudo once before. This is the very first person I’m plugging in my cash LU this week and I suggest you do exactly the same. DJ is almost sure to score at 100-points at a win, and he’s got a -550 gambling line saying he should get the win again here. Play it safe and use DJ in money. You can pile this battle as well, but I think DJ is a must.
GPP drama of the week — Thiago Santos ($9,200)
This is a good struggle to goal this week because it most likely won’t visit a choice. Holland just fought the Contender Series that a couple weeks ago and didn’t get a contract. But today he is about the PPV against one of the scariest strikers from the branch. The ITD line for Santos is currently -210 and the under 1.5 rounds betting line is -160. That tells me Vegas believes this battle ends ancient and Santos is the guy that should pick up the end. At $9.2k, he readily pays that price tag off in a 1st round win and I think he has a solid shot at doing exactly that. I really don’t care for him as much in cash game formats however because both guys have quite lower flooring, so this is a GPP just play for me personally.
Underdog drama of the week — Brett Johns ($7,400)
I believe everyone is composing Brett Johns after his loss to Aljo Sterling and that is exactly why he is so cheap on DraftKings this weekend. Together with the wrestling style Johns brings to the table, he’s 100+ upside in a decision triumph. Of course, we are concerned about him getting caught in a guillotine when he shoots for takedowns, but when he can avoid that I believe he can win this fight and 10x his wages with a win. I don’t think Johns will wish to strike with Munhoz for 15-minutes so that I really do believe he is going to be shooting takedowns. Those takedowns can get him submitted, or else they could get him a triumph over the scorecards. But this makes him a boom or bust play and that’s why he is a good underdog to pick in GPPs this past week.
Fade of this week — Danielle Taylor ($7,500)
Even at a cheap $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still need a end to cover that price label off with her style. She’s the worst style possible for scoring DraftKings point and even if she gets a win here she could end up scoring significantly less than some losers on the card. Taylor will be the least possessed fighter in GPPs this week, so in the event that you would like to invest your money on a 115 lb woman using a”punchers chance” of winning you a GPP, then you will be quite contrarian taking that path. However, I have no interest in investing my money into that I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I had been making 150 lineups, I’d still complete vanish Taylor here.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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