This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I believe that it’s a good week to concentrate more on money games. The most important GPP is an $8 entrance that pays $10K into 1st place. That is the best you to chase in my view. I will have a couple LUs that I placed into a lot of GPPs hoping I can win them all, but I won’t have many LUs in complete this week. Other than that, most of my play this week will probably be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. That said, here are a few plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, as well as my fade of this week.
Money Game play of the week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong could be the best play on the card that weekend and there are 4 fighters priced greater than him. Yadong is a -500 favorite on Saturday and I believe that is a struggle the UFC is needing him to win in his home country. I think in championships, Yadong will be the greatest owned fighter on the card with 3 girls fighters priced above him, with substantially smaller chances of winning ITD. I believe that you may create a case to fade him because of his possession in GPPs, but in cash games we don’t care about possession. I think this is a good place to lock in a win and maybe ~100-points, then try to find 3 more wins that we can afford. More often than maybe 4 wins gets the work done in cash games.
GPP play of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has got the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card at -400. There’s also worth on Hu Yaozong with him being $600 cheaper and the betting line being almost even. Usually when there is value like that on an underdog it makes them one of the more popular fighters on the card. I don’t think both of those men are UFC level fighters, but I am a little more impressed with what I have observed from Coulter than the inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter in GPP lineups in a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense that weekend in a struggle that should not go all 3-rounds. If both of these men get an early finish they will probably be about the winning lineup. I am imagining Coulter are the lower owned man of the two and that is what makes him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog drama of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really are not many underdogs I like to aim this week to get UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved creating lineups this week since I hate plugging in two underdogs once I think almost every favorite will get a win. I believe that the best underdog to aim this week is Francis Ngannou since he does have a very clear path to success and he’s won in this matchup before. The path to success for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the ability to be able to KO anyone on the planet. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends upon the 1st spot lineup, especially if it’s an early KO. In the first fight between these two guys Blaydes managed to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou was able to get up fairly quickly each time. If he’s in a position to end up like that again here, then I really don’t find any way Blaydes will have the cardio to attempt and wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is the scarier man on the toes and I really don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for extended periods of time. I believe Ngannou is reside for an upset here but on a cardI don’t like many underdogs I think he is the best one to aim with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t like targeting any of these ladies in the 9k range. I think they need to all get wins, but I don’t find any of them getting 10x their wages. For Mueller, she’d need at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and that I think she has to receive a finish to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA album and only 1 of the wins did not go to conclusion. She also only scored 72 DK points in her 1 UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she will not be winning anybody a tournament. I also think Zhang and Xiaonan have greater odds of winning than Mueller does this that is the reason why I chose her over those two as my fade of this week. I will not be making a great deal of lineups this week but when I was making 20 lineups afterward Mueller will be on zero of these.
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