- July 14, 2019
- Posted by: Web Admin
- Category: Uncategorized
This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card at Phoenix, Arizona. This is the first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some decent competitions for us for this Sunday card. The main GPP is that a $10 buy and $20k goes to 1st place, also there’ll be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for this final contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 50 or so entries at the $20k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic quantity of drama into money games. With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy too as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is the safest play on the slate, in my view. I believe he’ll be the fighter everywhere this battle goes, and he must predominate. I like locking that triumph in my cash game and I think he’s a good chance at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I really do expect him to become popular in tournaments so if you want to fade the possession there and attempt to become more contrarian, I would definitely need some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is demanding so that he could continue all 3 rounds and when he can then Luque might only score from the 80s and that will not win any GPPs. However, we can work with an ~80-point win in cash games because we only have to conquer half the area unlike those tournaments.
GPP drama of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP drama of the week due to the chances. A bit more than a week ago he had been a -255 favorite and that’s what led to his elevated $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and the worth is on Ngannou at his $7.2k price tag. I anticipate Ngannou to be the greatest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he’ll kill off close to half the field. Also, if Cain wins he is probably scoring over 100-points. I expect his possession to go down the longer his betting line reduces and that is what makes him a fantastic GPP play. He does have a 0-point flooring, so I do not care for him in money game, however for GPPs we want boom or bust to attempt and reach this 1st place prize.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favourite dog of this week. He’s $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he’s only a +125 underdog. I think he has a fantastic chance of winning this battle and I am picking him to get his hands raised. I anticipate this to be a very close battle, but I think Fili will probably be the fighter striking in the higher rate and that’s precisely what I think gets it done for him to the judges’ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili with 100+ point upside but we do not really require that at his $7.4k price tag. I think he’s a good shot at getting at least 10x, so he’s playable in most formats for me.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I think she will lose, but I think have a hard time seeing her about the 20k lineup at her wages. I enjoy the $9k range much greater than her and all of them have higher ceilings using their grappling-based game programs. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC introduction, but this is because she didn’t utilize grappling there. I really don’t see her doing this in this match because I presume Evans-Smith gets got the edge on the ground and she must be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this fight, then she’s going to have to get it done on the feet and I don’t see her with a high ceiling with no finish. The sole reason to use her is because she is going to be super low owned, and it will create your lineup , but I still wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 57-34 to get +188.13u (+$18,813) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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