BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering this is a free card and that I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I won my very first seat into it a couple weeks back and I will try to receive my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $25k prize, then I will probably have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really aren’t any cash game guards this week for me personally but I went with Yana since I fully expect this fight to go all 3 rounds so I enjoy the ground she brings to the table. In addition, I think she wins the battle and I believe she will be the fighter going for takedowns. I don’t know how large her ceiling is in money games it does not really matter too much because we do not have to strike 1st place in a double-up. I would anticipate about 10x from Yana at a choice win and I will take that day in my money games.
GPP play of this week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights often score highly as there are a lot of scrambles and all the grappling advances really add up. I anticipate this is a very fun battle, but it should be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I’m always trying to find no less than 10x from my fighters and at $8.3k I would be shocked if Smolka did not get that with a win. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point reduction to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s triumph over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP drama here and if he wins I would expect near 100 DK points.
Underdog drama of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
For a struggle that I expect to remain standing, I have quite a lot of interest in this struggle. I believe it’s going to be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is likewise the mid-range struggle of the week, so I think a KO from guy would have a fantastic chance to put them on the perfect lineup. I like it more because I’m picking the underdog to acquire the knockout and I expect Millender to function as higher owned fighter. I will have this fight in more than half of my lineups, but that I shall most likely have at least twice the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I think it is a much better GPP struggle than it’s for cash games, but I think dos Santos is currently in play for cash since he’s an underdog and that I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, but I will have a fantastic amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at that salary and I don’t see that happening. When he wins a clear 30-27 conclusion, then he likely scores mid 70’s and at his cost that won’t win anybody a GPP. I really don’t think he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I think he uses his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he does move for takedowns then I do not see him filing Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO from him to cover off that salary and I am not willing to take this risk with my cash. That’s why he is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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