Myth of Sports Betting: “Big” Payouts

“Big” Payouts

The typical way to bet the NFL is to bet one match at a time and provide 11-to-10 chances (risking, for example, $55 to win $50 or $110 to win $100). Normally the wager is on one group against the point spread, or the over-under on the total score of a game. But, bookies also supply other kinds of bets. What makes these bets alluring is they seem to pay more. But in reality, these exotic stakes generally cost you.

Parlays and Parlay Cards: Parlays are usually bet in 2 or three-game groups. On a two-game parlay, a bettor gets 13-to-5 chances if he wins both games. For a small investment, the payoff appears big: about a $50 bet, a payoff of $130. On a straight bet, by contrast, a bettor must gamble $143 ($130 plus the $13 vig) to win $130. And when he is going to wager two matches at $50 per year, he must risk $110 to win just $100. Why don’t you bet parlays?

The dilemma is that the odds of winning two of two bets is 3-to-1 against. That means the fair payout odds should also be 3-to-1 (or 15-to-5). However they aren’t. Instead, they are only 13-to-5.

A three-team parlay pays off at odds of 6-to-1. This $50 bettor receives $300 on a $50 investment. Sounds fantastic, doesn’t it?

On the other hand, the odds of cashing that three-team parlay ticket are just 1 at 8.

Another form of parlay is the parlay card, or”sheet” But, the payoff odds are much worse–often only 5-to-1 for choosing three games. This gives the house an edge of 25 percent. Four-teamers usually pay 10-to-1, which gives the home a 31.25 percent edge. A ten-teamer might pay 500-to-1, which sounds good until you realize that the chances against going 10 for 10 are 1,023-to-1, which provides the house over 50 percent edge on that proposition.

Teaser Bets: Each year the number of bettors that wager on teasers grows. Why? The games they recall losing by”just a stage or two.”

The most common sort of teaser bet is the two-team teaser where a bettor gets six points on each of 2 games. The cost of these extra points is providing 6-to-5 (or 12-to-10) odds on the bet. In most teasers, all games have to win for the bettor to get paid. Also, in most teasers, if any game ends in a tie, the teaser is considered no wager. (On a ten-point teaser, a tie leaves the teaser a reduction.)

In any given period, a game has a little more than a two-thirds chance of falling over 5 points of this closing line (the rate was 68.8 percent for 1990–1999). These games will be wins six-point individual-game teaser bets regardless of the side you bet. But you have to win two games to acquire a six-point teaser.

By squaring the 68.8 percent success rate for 1990–1999, we find that you’d have won just over 47% of six-point two-game teasers. Nevertheless, putting 6-to-5 odds means you have to win 54.545 percent of two-team teasers just to break even. That means the home had a border of over 12 percent.

On the opposite teaser bets, the film is just as bleak.

The best bet at the NFL is betting the point spread or over/under on individual games. Giving 11-to-10 odds is generally the cheapest price that you may give.