NASCAR at Phoenix odds, picks 2019: Model says Clint Bowyer surprises at TicketGuardian 500

The green flag drops for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway in suburban Phoenix on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Following an electric start to the season at Daytona and two fast 1.5-mile tracks in Atlanta and Las Vegas, Phoenix is the Dragon Energy NASCAR cup series’ first race at the tighter quarters of this one-mile loop at ISM Raceway. Kevin Harvick has won four of the last five March races at this track and will be the 9-4 favorite to collect another win at the latest 2019 TicketGuardian 500 chances. Fellow veteran and Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin is getting 16-1, while Kurt Busch reaches 30-1 NASCAR in Phoenix odds after a solid start to his season that has him at eighth in the NASCAR standings. Before you make your own 2019 TicketGuardian 500 selections, make sure you check at the NASCAR in Phoenix projected leaderboard in the SportsLine Projection Model.

Produced by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive information scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 occasions, taking factors such as track history and recent results into consideration.

It made some huge calls in NASCAR last year, such as properly projecting wins for Kyle Busch in Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. And it’s off to a strong start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin a top-four competition and nailing eight of the top 10 drivers in last week’s Pennzoil 400, which included placing winner Joey Logano in its own projected top five. Is far up.

Grew up around race tracks. Big events in places like ISM Raceway have been in his bloodstream. His version has now simulated Sunday’s 2019 NASCAR in Phoenix race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For the 2019 TicketGuardian 500, we could tell you the model is top on Clint Bowyer, who makes a strong run in the checkered flag despite heading off as a long shot at 25-1 NASCAR chances. He’s a target for anybody looking for a massive payday.

Bowyer struck a five-season drought without a win and went on to grab a pair of victories at Martinsville and Michigan on the way to some 12th-place finish in the NASCAR Playoffs. This season, he has added a top-five complete at Atlanta and has revealed remarkable speed occasionally. Bowyer has seven career top-10s at Phoenix and won a truck series race at this track in 2010.

Bowyer, who drives for Stewart-Haas Racing, was second in one of the year’s Daytona Duels and closed out last year’s NASCAR schedule using an eight-place ending at Homestead. He’ll also come armed into the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 with a similar car set up to teammates Harvick and Aric Almirola.

Among those shocking 2019 NASCAR in Phoenix chooses from the version: Kevin Harvick, a nine-time winner at ISM Raceway along with the top Vegas favourite, makes a strong run but falls short of winning everything.

Harvick has made a career from getting to the front of the pack consistently at this particular track. In Reality, he has finished in the top 10 at 11 consecutive starts at ISM Raceway

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