NASCAR Betting by the Numbers: Homestead-Miami Championship Predictions & Picks

With the 2018 NASCAR year coming to an end this weekend at Homestead-Miami, race fans will have their final opportunity to make some extra cash for another 3 months. Not only is that the race sure to be an exciting one, the 2018 NASCAR Champion will be crowned. This implies, NASCAR fans have the pleasure of two distinct major gambling opportunities to make the most of.

While Vegas has introduced their chances for each driver to win the Ford EcoBoost 400 in Homestead-Miami, I’ve compiled data that reveals slightly different results. By opting to ignore past year’s performances in this course and instead focus on season end averages based on 1.5 mile trail performances, I have created a list of drivers which are most likely to win this weekend. This list also enables us to appraise each driver’s betting return according to their Vegas odds.

Vegas Odds
Kevin Harvick: 11/4
Kyle Busch: 11/4
Kyle Larson: 3/1
Martin Truex Jr.: 6/1
Joey Logano: 10/1
Brad Keselowski: 15/1
Chase Elliott: 20/1
Denny Hamlin: 20/1
Clint Bowyer: 25/1
Kurt Busch: 25/1
Eric Jones: 30/1
Aric Almirola: 40/1
Ryan Blaney: 40/1
Austin Dillon: 80/1
Jimmie Johnson: 80/1
Daniel Su??rez: 100/1
1.5 Mile Finish Averages
Kyle Busch: 5.4 (2) ^1
Joey Logano: 7.25 (5) ^3
Martin Truex Jr.: 8.9 (4) ^1
Kevin Harvick: 9.3 (1) v3
Kyle Larson: 9.6 (3) v2
Brad Keselowski: 9.7 (6) —
Austin Dillon: 10.4 (14) ^7
Eric Jones: 10.6 (11) ^3
Aric Almirola: 12.6 (12) ^3
Ryan Blaney: 12.7 (13) ^3
Clint Bowyer: 13 (9) v2
Kurt Busch: 13 (10) v2
Chase Elliott: 13.9 (7) v6
Denny Hamlin: 14.8 (8) v6
Jimmie Johnson: 17.6 (15) —
Daniel Su??rez: 19.25 (16) —

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