UFC FN143 Betting Tips & Plays

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TJ Dillashaw Breakdown:
With the weigh-ins finish, TJ looks sharp and has proven himself well ready for the 125lb division. On the toes he should have an important advantage over Cejudo. The length of TJ, combined with his unorthodox fashion, will allow him to land severe volume contrary to the limited wrestler. Additionally leg kicks are a deadly option against front hefty karate stance. Cejudo will be needing takedowns and significant top control if he’s to acquire any rounds. Unfortunately for him, TJ has outstanding wrestling himself in addition to an arguably more harmful grappling arsenal. His evasiveness should limit Cejudo’s opportunities to take and on the ground he will be difficult to control for extended periods. Overall the road to success looks slim for Cejudo whilst TJ is a proven finisher who conveys good aerobic and much superior volume to win more than 5 rounds. The wager is TJ Dillashaw to become the double champ!Rachael Ostovich Breakdown:
Both these fighters have some flaws to their game but stylistically that is a winnable fight for the underdog. On the feet Vanzant is unorthodox but likely faster with more volume. Ostovich includes a simpler fashion but neither fighter is very likely to land considerable damage here. The size and strength for Ostovich will probably be a significant advantage on the ground where the two girls have a tendency to attract the battle. Vanzant is stubborn but takes risky options and leaves a great deal of openings for opponents. Ostovich can capitalise here and her exceptional control means she’ll spend a great deal more time on top or at dominant positions. Expect a back and forth struggle where we get good value on the underdog chances.
Bet = Ostovich at 2.35 (+135) chances. Risk 3 Units to acquire 4.05 Units.
Ariane Lipski Breakdown:
Lipski that the”Violence Queen” is making her debut following an impressive run since the KSW winner. Matching up using Calderwood she has the advantage in many areas. The power and aggression of Lipski’s combos in the pocket will probably be overwhelming for Calderwood who lacks speed and head motion. This fight is probably to play out on the feet but even on the mat it’s Lipski with the far better skills. Calderwood is coming off a”lucky” submission win in a fight where she had been having a great deal of trouble. Over her career she has been know to battle with adversity during conflicts and search for a way out. Lipski though looks to be quite durable and fights with heart. In 24 years old she also will be showing huge improvements between fights.
Bet = Lipski at 1.53 (-188) chances. Risk 5 Components to acquire 2.65 Units.
Alexander Hernandez Breakdown:
Cerrone is coming back down to 155lbs to get an unlikely matchup against an increasing prospect. Hernandez brings a style which is proven against Cowboy with his fast start and relentless pressure. If this fight goes the distance it’ll be Hernandez pushing the speed, holding Cerrone against the fence and securing takedowns to impress the judges. Cowboys best path to victory is snatching a entry off his back but that’s a little probability against a strong wrestler. The energy, athleticism, youth and style of Hernandez is going to be a great deal for the veteran to handle with just 3 rounds to operate with. Cerrone is typically a slow starter and the drop back to 155lb is not likely to help his durability problems.
Bet = Hernandez in 1.54 (-185) odds. Risk 4 Units to win 2.16 Units.
Dustin Ortiz Breakdown:
This is a rematch fight in the first back in 2014, which Benavidez won via decision. Today it is Ortiz who has shown the most improvements in his sport, currently riding an impressive win streak. Benavidez is still a leading contender but does seem like he is marginally diminishing in his current appearances. For example an underdog Ortiz has a few paths to success. He will be at a disadvantage on the feet in terms of quantity, but packs substantial power. Benavidez was wobbled always in recent conflicts suggesting his durability is fading. Furthermore the 34 year old will slow down later in the fight since Ortiz brings a constant grinding pace. This should be a close fight that seems to be lined overly broad.
Bet = Ortiz in 3.05 (+205) odds. Risk 2 Units to acquire 4.1 Units.
Karl Roberson Breakdown:
Roberson is moving up as a late replacement to take on the difficult veteran Glover. On the toes the disparity is wide. Roberson is lightning fast and has strong counters. Glover has slowed considerably into his later years and together with his durability evaporating his lack of head movement is apparent. Cory Anderson (Roberson’s training partner) is not known for his striking yet found enormous victory himself on the toes in his final fight against Glover. The clear dilemma for Roberson is that his grappling defence, but working with Anderson he must be improving here as a young prospect. Glover may get some takedowns however if he doesn’t get an early entry it will be challenging to keep up with the younger, quicker and more athletic Roberson. Additionally if he can not get it to the mat his options seem bleak. As an underdog, Roberson looks a good bet.

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